Here, I offer a bleak perspective of universal basic income (UBI). The traditional argument follows lines: "With UBI, people choose not a soul-crushing job, but they will pursue their passions. Everyone will benefit because they will innovate and create an inspired art."
I read some experiments about UBI. They fail to generalize. Mostly because: They lasted only about two years; They handed out just a small amount of money; They focused on the unemployed.
For these reasons, we can only speculate what happens when strategy: "I'll live only from UBI for my whole life, and nobody will resent me for it." becomes viable.
The work will differentiate into two types: for fun and money.
Most low-paying jobs will disappear. There will be only these that can be part-time and offering some perks (or prestige). I would guard a pool four times a week but would not be a cashier with a 40-hour workweek. I would organize charity events but would not mess up my sleep with night shifts. I would write a high-quality blog (haha, joke) but not sit in the office listening to complaints.
Low-paying jobs might disappear. For everything simple a human would do, we will construct a robot that does it cheaper. The only work left would pay a lot: it cannot be automatized and is profitable.
Unfortunately, a lot of the people would not handle a high-paying job. These jobs require education, dedication, and if not genetics, then at least support.
So after we unleash the UBI run and let it shape our world, then the work for a significant fraction of the population might vanish. A guy who drove a truck for 40 years might find a job now. He can requalify or accept something worse. But if he lacks motivation and reason to do it, he stays home.
The weakest point in my argument lies here, in assumptions about the human character. So far, everyone needed to work and found a job (despite these damn steam-powered machines). Maybe the human need for purpose prevails, and they will be creating beautiful things. If yes, then I have to retract all the following arguments. If not, we get to a dystopian territory.
Imagine only 30% of people work. How would you go about educating them? Would you try to find these 30% and educate them as well as possible, or would you educate everyone the same? Good luck with the second approach. If there is no motivation, children learn nothing, and you waste expensive teachers.
I predict that the education will differ for the people who want to work and who do not. It implies scary things, at least for the democracy. I plan to explore that in some future posts.
So some people will have work and education, others will lack both.
Whatever you buy, you pay to a working person. So money flows from everyone (people on UBI) to working people. (I don't suppose communism, I can do it, I'm optimist.)
Taxes and redistribution ensure the opposite flow of money. But if after taxes something remains, it can be invested. It means only working people participate in growing the economy, and they reap the benefits (The people on UBI will not do it).
The people on UBI will benefit from innovation, they will buy improved products, but the money ends with working people.
The people who work hard will receive many times over the monthly UBI. They invest or give it to other working people. They will enrich themselves to the point of disconnecting from the non-working people. For instance, a car might be a luxury for working people. Others don't need to go anywhere, and if they do, they need to slow down and take the public transport.
People will divide into three groups: those who work, those who don't but can, and those who cannot. During your life, you go only down, from work through can-work to cannot-work. The same progression happens now with retirement.
It would be a pain to align the interests of all classes. We need to learn to tolerate inequality. It motivates others to work. The argument: "theoretically everyone can work" hopefully discourages harming the only people who create progress.
To conclude. With UBI, if the people do not need the work, we will stratify the society to unheard levels.
If you are curious about life in that society, I wrote a sci-fi story. I explore my theories here.